Small Business Owners Enter 2026 With Cautious, Steady Optimism
Despite a year of cost pressure and shifting economic signals, small business owners are starting 2026 with what JPMorganChase's annual Business Leaders Outlook survey describes as "steady optimism." More than 60% of owners say they feel more positive about their own business right now than at any point in the past five years, and 74% describe themselves as optimistic about their company's outlook for the year — holding roughly steady with 76% in July 2025 and 75% in November 2024.
The optimism is notably more personal than macroeconomic. Only 39% of small business leaders expressed optimism about the national economy overall, and just over half, 51%, say they do not expect a recession in 2026. Top concerns include economic uncertainty, cited by 49% of respondents, alongside revenue and sales growth and tariffs and labor costs, each cited by 31%.
Owners aren't waiting passively for conditions to improve. The survey found 47% are building larger cash reserves, 36% are renegotiating supplier terms, and a majority are increasing investment in marketing and technology, including AI tools that 59% now consider essential to remaining competitive within three years.
The pattern — confident about one's own business, guarded about the wider economy — has shown up consistently across 2026's small business surveys, suggesting owners are less interested in forecasting the macro picture than in controlling what they directly can: costs, cash reserves, and customer experience.